Non-Export as Panacea for Economic Recession

The arable lands in the different parts of Nigeria can feed both the country and three or more sub-Saharan countries. There is palm oil in the East, Cassava in the South-South, Cocoa in the West and Cotton in the North as well as other numerous crops and mineral resources viable in the international market. Mushroom farming in itself can boost non-oil export product if there are sufficient farmers and needed equipment. We must go back to our farmlands, to our workshops, to our stations. Non-oil export is the only panacea for economic recession …Zero Oil plan will increase earnings from non-oil sector to $30 billion in the next five years as against $2.7billion today’ – Mr. Olusegun Awolowo.

‘When suffering knocks at your door and you say there is no seat for him, he tells you not to worry because he has brought his own stool’ – Chinua Achebe. That historical day of January 15, 1956 not only pacified our political struggle and made us instant kinglets; it also gave us the yam and the knife but took our arms. How can one man’s meat be his own poison? Sixty years later, Nigeria’s economic outlook is the worse in sub-Saharan Africa. On that historical day of 15th January 1956, petroleum deposit was first discovered in commercial quantity in Oloibiri Oilfield making Nigeria a country to be reckoned with internationally. The petroleum industry in Nigeria grew to become the largest in Africa, boosting the Gross Domestic Product, employment rate, and external revenues. While the people have only enjoyed just below 10% from the sector, unemployment, hardship and now recession are all glaring.

It is true that decline in GDP growth is a sign that a recession may be underway but a rise in GDP never indicated any better changes for the country. Even if it did, culminating effects of high interest rates, corruption and unstable political reforms significantly outstretching more than two quarters may further lead to depression if a wholly diversified economy does not fully commence of which the petroleum industry adds a little flesh. No economic indicator is currently favouring the Nigerian economy especially retail trade sales and manufacturing. Economic recession is staring at us right in face. It has even stared past our noses ridiculing the 2016 budget that estimated 2.2million barrels production of crude oil per day as against 1.1million barrels realistic today. This, coupled with uncertainties in consumer purchases and heavy losses in the stock market will pave way for complete fruition of the Zero Oil plan.

It is said that a country cannot grow without export. It is export of locally made products ‘fist-fully’ dug and mined like gold that tells the giant nature of such a country. But how can one export goods and services that are not locally manufactured? How can such goods be locally manufactured if the SMEs vis-à-vis non-oil exports encouraged and equipped, hence unsustainable? First, how has Nigeria fared in exports over the years? ‘…exports from Nigeria increased 9.9% year-on-year to N747760 million in September of 2016. Considering the third quarter of the year, exports decreased from a year earlier to N2309 billion… exports in Nigeria average N370305.54millions from 1981 until 2016, reaching an all time high of N2648881.76 millions in December of 2011 and a record low of N322.93millions in February of 1983’(www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/exports as at 1:00pm 22nd December, 2016). These fluctuations where mostly due to fluctuations in oil prices, political instability and overprotection of foreign currency, now non-oil exports must take its toll.

What are the non-oil exports in Nigeria? Here, I have distinguished them in sub-headings:

1.     Agriculture: this can account for more than 50% of the country’s export because we have the land, manpower and techniques. Cotton, yam, palm kernel oil, palm kernel cake, cocoa, honey, cashew, rubber, sesame seeds, bitter kola, tobacco, gallstones, beans, garlic, etc.

2.     Aquaculture: dried fish, crayfish, crabs, shrimps etc.

3.     Solid minerals: Bitumen, kaolin, Iron ore, lead zinc, charcoal, limestone.

4.     Manufacturing: fruit juice, yam flour, fabrics and textiles, leather and footwear.

5.     Arts and crafts: paintings/sculptures, woven fabrics, broom, beads, etc.

6.     Herbs: Moringa seeds, Donkey skin, soaps/powder, etc.

What can hinder the success rate of these export potential products? ‘the challenges include inadequate funding; limited and restricted access to credit; infrastructural deficiency and weak logistics to support the supply chain; Nigerian exports dominated by primary commodities; external barriers; inadequate export-oriented manufacturers; and low production capacity. We also have poor standardization of products; high production costs arising from poor infrastructure and lack of export culture’ (Mr. Olusegun Awolowo; interview with Ifeanyi Onuba on ‘Non-oil exports will take Nigeria out of recession”; Business: Sunday CEO http://punchng.com/non-oil-exports-will-take-nigeria-recession-awolowo).

Mr. Kemi Adeosun and Mr. Okechukwu Enelamah who are heading Finance and Industry, Trade and Investment Ministries respectively have both affirmed the resurrection of the Export Expansion Grant Scheme in 2017.  Exporters in both agriculture and non-agricultural fields especially new ones are more than ready to legally engage in export trade. The scheme which will then be called EXPORT CREDIT GRANT was first introduced in 1986 to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on oil. This will effectively boost the ZERO OIL plan which summarily will:

i.                   Aid the growth of local businesses, expand infrastructure, jobs and investment will triple.

ii.                 Increase the strength of the Naira and increase productivity.

iii.              Nigeria will earn over $100 billion by 2025.

iv.               Exports as petrochemicals, palm oil, cocoa, soybeans, rubber, etc will increase export volumes in Nigeria by 70 million tons.

v.                 Active participation by patriotic Nigerians and large shareholders through sourcing of products from millions of micro, small and medium sized enterprises thereby providing millions of jobs.

Nigeria must export now!
23/12/2016